Friday, May 16, 2008

Gas Price Predictions-How bad can it get?

Oil hit $100 per bbl on Feb 20,2008. Many economists predict the price will rise to $200/bbl in less than 2 years. After looking at the trends for the last 3 months, I want to go on the record and predict $200/bbl on or before Jan 5th, 2009.

May 22,2008 $135
May 26th Dr. Robert Hirsch agrees with my prediction.
June 27, 2008 $140
July 1st, 2008 144.25 (Price is lagging behind my prediction at the point.)
July 6th, 2008 Russian Expert says $250 within an year.
July 22, 2008 A little dip in the market to 130.23...has brought gas prices down 1 cent!

I am basing this on oil's continued price gains, on average, $0.31 per day since Feb 20,2008. At that growth rate it will take 235 days for it to reach $200. This will raise the price of a gallon of gas to between $7.50 and $8.00 USD. The greatest price increases will come toward the end of the year as the Outgoing President and his cronies take all the profit they can squeeze out before the Newly Elected President can take over on Tuesday, January 20th,2009. (1)

Natural disasters and/or another American invasion of a foreign country could raise the price of oil even higher.

I predict the following Major Changes as a result of dramatically higher gas prices:

1) Reduction in the national speed limit from 70 mph to 50 mph or 55 mph. (1)

2) We will have a resurgence of interest in "Buy American" as people scramble to support American Made and American Grown products.

3) More people will grow a portion of their own food and more people will focus on locally grown food.
As of May 2008, farmer's market prices are leveling out with supermarket prices on fresh in-season vegetables-more people are buying local produce than ever before. (1)

4) Food Rioting around the world will increase exponentially as the gap between rich and poor widens.

5) Worldwide GM crop failures due to the reduction in availability and high cost of petroleum based fertilizers, on which GM crops are heavily dependent. (1) (2) (3)

6) Materials previously considered "garbage" will become valuable enough to incite theft and crime. (1) (2) (3) (6) Used Oil (4) (5) And, previously safe public works & art will be stolen and trashed. Bronze Grave Markers John Wadden's Art Catalytic Converters will disappear with amazing efficiency. (1)

7) SUV's will become unsaleable as people scramble to buy smaller more fuel efficient transport. (1) (2)

8) Many companies and governments will switch to 4 day work weeks. (1) This will be good for companies and workers. Companies will be able to save about 20% on energy operating costs, and workers will save 20% on their work related fuel and food costs.

I will come back and update this post as new information becomes available.

1 comment:

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